【SunX Research】Crypto Market Weekly Report

Weekly Market Overview

This week, global markets were characterised by a brief post-election rally being overshadowed by a sharp sell-off in technology stocks.

Following the conclusion of the US midterm elections, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 3% in a single session on Wednesday. However, a sharp sell-off in AI-related and semiconductor stocks on Thursday reversed much of the optimism. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by approximately 12% in a single session, while the Nasdaq dropped around 5.5% and the S&P 500 declined approximately 4.4%.

For the week as a whole, major US equity indices closed lower. The cryptocurrency market came under similar pressure, with Bitcoin retreating from approximately US$81,000 at the beginning of the week to around US$75,800 by Friday, having touched an intrawEEK low of approximately US$74,900.

Key Market Data This Week:

• S&P 500: Closed at 7,376.86, down approximately 2.68% for the week.
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,579, down approximately 3.37%.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 51,285.73, down approximately 0.94%.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Fell to approximately US$75,800, with a weekly low of around US$74,900.
• Ethereum (ETH): Declined to approximately US$2,290.
• US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell to approximately 4.86%.
• WTI Crude Oil: Declined to approximately US$91 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: Fell to approximately US$98 per barrel.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Recorded approximately US$1.28 billion in net outflows over the week.

Three key themes defined market activity this week:

First, the US equity rebound lost momentum. The rally following the midterm elections was quickly overshadowed by a technology stock sell-off driven by concerns over AI capital expenditure.

Second, expectations for monetary policy turned more hawkish. Stronger-than-expected October non-farm payroll figures pushed market-implied expectations of a December rate hike to approximately 78%–81%.

Third, the cryptocurrency market remained under pressure. Bitcoin fell below US$80,000, spot ETF outflows continued, and institutional risk appetite weakened noticeably.

The following is SunX Research's comprehensive review of this week's traditional finance (TradFi) and cryptocurrency markets.

1. Macroeconomics and Traditional Finance

The Brief Post-Election Rally Was Overshadowed by Concerns Over AI Capital Expenditure

The most significant macroeconomic developments in the US equity market this week were the conclusion of the US midterm elections and the subsequent sharp correction in technology stocks.

Markets initially staged a notable rally following the election results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising approximately 3% on Wednesday alone, marking one of its strongest single-day performances in recent months.

However, markets reversed sharply on Thursday as investors reassessed concerns surrounding potential tighter restrictions on data centre construction, the return on investment from AI-related capital expenditure, and the associated costs of debt financing.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell approximately 12% in a single session, marking one of its largest daily declines since March 2020. The Nasdaq dropped around 5.5%, while the S&P 500 fell approximately 4.4%.

Markets staged a modest recovery on Friday, but the rebound was insufficient to offset the week's losses.

1.1 Performance of Major US Equity Indices

At the close of trading on 6 November:

The S&P 500 stood at 7,376.86, down approximately 2.68% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579, down approximately 3.37%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 51,285.73, down approximately 0.94%, while the Russell 2000 declined by around 2%.

Notably, the equal-weighted S&P 500 recorded a smaller decline than its market-capitalisation-weighted counterpart, indicating that capital continued to rotate away from large-cap technology stocks.

This suggests that the current correction is not simply a broad-based reduction in risk exposure. Rather, the market is reassessing valuations of AI-related assets, the expected returns on capital expenditure and the cost of financing.

1.2 Employment Data Reinforces Year-End Rate Hike Expectations

US non-farm payroll data released on Friday exceeded expectations, with approximately 165,000 jobs added in October and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%.

Meanwhile, market-implied expectations of a December FOMC rate hike rose to approximately 78%–81%.

Although the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged in October, the combination of resilient employment and persistently elevated inflation has kept the probability of further monetary tightening towards year-end relatively high.

This creates a dual challenge for risk assets. On the one hand, strong employment suggests that the economy remains resilient. On the other, it gives the Federal Reserve less reason to move towards monetary easing in the near term.

1.3 Bonds, the US Dollar and Commodities

In the bond and commodity markets, the US 10-Year Treasury yield declined from approximately 4.93% to 4.86% over the week, reflecting a combination of safe-haven demand and falling oil prices.

The US Dollar Index stood at approximately 102.3, recording a modest weekly gain.

Oil prices fell sharply. WTI crude settled at approximately US$90.8–91 per barrel, while Brent crude closed at around US$98 per barrel. Both benchmarks recorded weekly declines of approximately 13%–15%, largely driven by expectations of easing geopolitical tensions following the midterm elections.

Gold remained around US$4,070 per ounce, posting a modest weekly gain, although prices retreated on Friday amid stronger employment data and rising expectations of further rate increases.

1.4 SunX Research: Macroeconomic Outlook

The central tension in current macroeconomic pricing lies in the following:

Falling oil prices could help ease inflationary pressures, but resilient employment data makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift towards monetary easing quickly.

For cryptocurrency traders, two upcoming events warrant particular attention:

• 10 November: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
• 9 December: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.

If CPI data indicates moderating inflation and the 10-Year Treasury yield remains below 4.90%, risk assets could receive some breathing room.

However, stronger-than-expected inflation data would place additional pressure on Bitcoin, which has already retreated significantly.

2. Cryptocurrency Market Microstructure

Bitcoin Falls Below US$80,000 and Continues Lower as ETFs Record Heavy Weekly Outflows

As at 8 November, Bitcoin was trading in the region of US$75,700–76,000.

Its weekly price action can be divided into three distinct phases.

2.1 Bitcoin's Price Performance This Week

Phase One: Early-Week Recovery Through Wednesday

Bitcoin recovered from approximately US$76,000–77,000 and briefly reached around US$81,000 on Wednesday.

Phase Two: Sharp Reversal on Thursday

The sharp sell-off in technology stocks spread into the cryptocurrency market, pushing Bitcoin below US$78,000.

Phase Three: Further Downside on Friday

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately US$412 million in net outflows in a single day. Bitcoin subsequently touched a low of around US$74,900 before trading within the US$75,000–76,000 range over the weekend.

Ethereum weakened in tandem, falling to approximately US$2,290.

Overall, sentiment across the cryptocurrency market remained firmly within the extreme fear territory.

2.2 ETF Capital Flows: The Most Significant Data Point of the Week

Capital flows provided the clearest indication of market conditions this week.

According to data from platforms including SoSoValue and Farside, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately US$1.28 billion in net outflows over the week, representing one of the largest weekly outflows in recent periods.

Daily figures showed the following:

• 2 November: Approximately US$400 million in net outflows.
• 5 November: Approximately US$430 million in net outflows.
• 6 November: Approximately US$412 million in net outflows.
• 4 November: The only day to record a modest net inflow.

IBIT accounted for the largest share of outflows, contributing most of the weekly redemptions.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded approximately US$365 million in net outflows over the week, extending their recent weakness.

Meanwhile, the rapid decline in prices further accelerated forced liquidations, with leveraged long positions bearing the brunt of the market flush-out.

Customer withdrawals following the earlier Binance security incident also continued, adding to concerns over market liquidity.

2.3 Key Bitcoin Price Levels

Based on the current price structure, several key levels deserve close attention:

US$80,000 – Major Resistance

Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level to provide stronger confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.

US$78,000 – Key Market Sentiment Pivot

This level serves as an important reference point for assessing short-term market strength.

US$75,000–76,000 – Key Near-Term Support

This zone has already been tested during the week. If it holds, the market may still have room to enter a period of consolidation.

US$72,000–74,000 – Potential Downside Testing Zone

If US$75,000 fails to hold, Bitcoin could move lower to test this range.

If Bitcoin breaks below US$75,000 while ETF outflows continue, the market may revisit the US$72,000–74,000 region.

Conversely, if Bitcoin stabilises above US$77,000 and IBIT returns to net inflows, conditions could support another attempt at the US$80,000 level.

In contrast to the relative resilience of small-cap equities, Bitcoin continued to track movements in large-cap technology stocks and broader risk appetite this week, rather than benefiting from defensive sector performance or strength in gold.

3. In-Depth Industry Analysis

Persistent ETF Outflows and the Aftermath of Security Incidents Are Testing the Resilience of Institutional Investment Channels

When spot Bitcoin ETFs record more than US$1.2 billion in net outflows within a single week, the quality of institutional investment channels becomes more important than the existence of those channels themselves.

This week's capital flows indicate that institutional investors remain highly sensitive to the sharp correction in technology stocks, stronger rate hike expectations following employment data, and the lingering impact of earlier security incidents.

3.1 Institutional Investors Are Reassessing Their Risk Exposure

IBIT remains one of the market's most important liquidity products. However, its sustained redemptions demonstrate that even products with relatively low fees and strong liquidity are not immune when risk appetite contracts sharply.

Continued outflows from Ethereum ETFs further reinforce the pattern of capital concentrating around core Bitcoin exposure while overall risk budgets are being reduced.

For institutional investors, the question is no longer simply whether to allocate capital to digital assets. It is increasingly about how to manage allocation sizes, liquidity risk and potential drawdowns.

3.2 Corporate Treasury Holdings and ETF Flows Are Moving at Different Speeds

In contrast to ETF activity, corporate treasury strategies and long-term holders are operating on different timelines.

Previous accumulation by companies such as Strategy has not necessarily followed the direction of weekly ETF flows.

This week, while ETFs recorded substantial net outflows, corporate treasuries did not demonstrate corresponding large-scale selling. This suggests that medium-term support continues to come from balance-sheet buyers.

However, the weekly market direction has once again become increasingly dependent on capital flows, macroeconomic data and unexpected events.

For professional investors, one point is particularly important:

Institutionalisation does not mean one-way capital inflows. It involves both subscriptions and redemptions.

When multiple sources of pressure converge, the pace of redemptions can accelerate just as quickly.

3.3 Security Incidents Are Affecting Confidence in Market Infrastructure

Customer withdrawals following the Binance security incident have continued, further amplifying concerns over exchange-level liquidity.

This has prompted the market to reassess the resilience of custody arrangements and on-chain infrastructure.

For the cryptocurrency industry, exchange liquidity, asset transparency, reserve quality and risk management capabilities are becoming increasingly important considerations in institutional capital allocation.

Market participants are no longer focused solely on yields and trading depth. They are paying greater attention to whether assets can be independently verified and whether platforms can continue operating normally under extreme market conditions.

3.4 SunX Research: The Market Is Entering a New Pricing Regime

Geopolitical and macroeconomic developments are influencing the cryptocurrency market indirectly through oil prices and interest rate expectations.

A sharp decline in oil prices could help ease inflation concerns. However, resilient employment data makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to rule out a December rate hike.

With the 10-Year Treasury yield remaining around 4.86% and market-implied expectations of a December rate hike still close to 80%, all high-beta assets are facing renewed scrutiny.

This week, the cryptocurrency market benefited neither from the improvement in risk sentiment associated with falling oil prices nor from the strength in gold. Instead, it continued to track technology stocks and ETF capital flows.

SunX Research believes:

The market has moved beyond the question of whether macroeconomic headwinds have been fully priced in. It is now entering a phase in which investors must assess whether the AI capital expenditure narrative, employment data and the lingering effects of security incidents can coexist without triggering further market stress.

If CPI data remains moderate next week, ETF flows return to positive territory and the technology stock sell-off begins to ease, Bitcoin could consolidate around US$76,000 before making another attempt at the US$78,000–80,000 range.

However, if ETF outflows persist or CPI comes in stronger than expected, US$75,000 may prove to have been only a temporary low rather than the starting point of a renewed upward trend.

4. SunX Trading Strategy Guide

Shift from Betting on a Post-Election Rally to Managing Drawdown Risk Amid Multiple Headwinds

With the US 10-Year Treasury yield around 4.86%, technology stocks down more than 3% for the week and Bitcoin having recently fallen below US$76,000, neither chasing the market higher with excessive leverage nor blindly buying the dip at US$75,000 represents an ideal strategy.

For SunX high-net-worth clients and professional traders, a more appropriate framework this week is:

Use futures to manage volatility, IBIT flows to confirm market direction, and stablecoin yields to preserve liquidity and flexibility.

4.1 Strategy One: Adopt a Defensive Trading Approach Within the US$75,000–80,000 Range

Under current market conditions, a defensive range-trading strategy is more appropriate than making a directional bet on an immediate recovery.

For investors holding spot positions, a small hedging position through SunX futures above US$78,000–80,000 could help protect against further downside should the technology stock sell-off intensify or ETF outflows continue.

If Bitcoin retests the US$75,000–76,000 range while IBIT continues to demonstrate relative resilience, investors may consider gradually reducing short hedges.

Until Bitcoin reclaims and holds above US$77,000, this week's technical stabilisation should not be interpreted as the beginning of a confirmed trend reversal.

SunX's deep liquidity and execution speed are particularly suited to managing this type of cross-time-zone volatility, where price movements during the day follow US equities and overnight trading responds to ETF flows and unexpected developments.

4.2 Strategy Two: Reduce Long-Tail Risk Exposure and Preserve Stablecoin Liquidity

Reduce exposure to long-tail assets that are less closely linked to institutional capital flows, and move idle capital into yield-bearing instruments with verifiable underlying structures.

This week, relative resilience was more evident in certain defensive sectors, traditional financial assets linked to gold, and the comparatively strong liquidity of IBIT.

We recommend reducing exposure to speculative, narrative-driven altcoins and converting a portion of capital into USDT or USDC.

Subject to a thorough assessment of product risks, redemption terms and fund security, investors may also consider allocating capital to SunX Earn, retaining the flexibility to rotate back into spot positions or hedging strategies when market conditions improve.

In an environment where US Treasury yields are around 4.9%, stablecoin yield products require greater scrutiny of underlying assets, reserve transparency and redemption arrangements.

Following persistent ETF outflows and the aftermath of security incidents, daily market volatility could increase further.

Yield products with transparent reserves, clearly defined rules and independently verifiable structures deserve greater consideration than high APY offerings with unclear sources of returns.

4.3 Strategy Three: Focus on Three Key Sets of Indicators Next Week

There is no need to track an excessive number of indicators next week. Three key areas deserve particular attention:

First: Spot Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows

Monitor whether flows return to positive territory, particularly for IBIT. This indicator can help determine whether institutional capital is returning to the market.

Second: US CPI Data

Pay close attention to the inflation figures scheduled for release on 10 November. The key question is whether inflation is genuinely moderating and whether expectations for Federal Reserve policy are beginning to shift.

Third: Performance of Large-Cap US Technology Stocks

Monitor whether selling pressure in technology stocks begins to ease. This will help determine whether broader risk appetite is recovering.

The first two indicators will help determine the direction of market beta, while the third will provide insight into expectations for broader macroeconomic liquidity.

Three Potential Market Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

Moderate CPI readings, a return to positive ETF inflows and stabilisation in technology stocks could enable Bitcoin to retest the US$78,000–80,000 range.

Cautious Scenario:

Bitcoin rebounds, but ETF outflows continue. In this case, the rally should be treated as an opportunity to rebalance positions and reduce risk exposure.

Bearish Scenario:

Stronger-than-expected CPI data, continued ETF outflows and further declines in technology stocks could cause the US$75,000 support level to fail, potentially exposing the US$72,000–74,000 range.

5. SunX Research: Weekly Conclusion

The most significant development in the market this week was not simply Bitcoin falling below US$80,000 or technology stocks experiencing a sharp single-day correction. Rather, it was the shift in the underlying logic driving market risk pricing.

From concerns over AI capital expenditure to stronger rate hike expectations following non-farm payroll data, and from substantial spot ETF outflows to the lingering effects of security incidents, multiple factors are now influencing institutional risk budgets simultaneously.

For the cryptocurrency market, a short-term price rebound is no longer sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

What truly matters is whether capital flows return, whether macroeconomic pressures begin to ease, and whether market infrastructure can withstand periods of heightened volatility.

SunX Research will continue monitoring three key areas — US Treasury yields, ETF capital flows and CPI data — to help users identify structural opportunities and manage market volatility throughout the high-interest-rate cycle, rather than being driven by a single day's technology stock rebound or ETF outflows.

SunX Research

Understanding Market Shifts. Identifying Structural Opportunities.

Disclaimer

The macroeconomic data, US equity indices, bond yields, commodity prices and cryptocurrency market indicators referenced in this report are provided solely for research, discussion and market trend analysis. Nothing in this report constitutes financial, legal or investment advice.

Digital assets and leveraged products are highly volatile. Investors should make decisions prudently in accordance with their individual risk tolerance and ensure that appropriate risk management measures are in place.