SunX Research Weekly: Liquidity Reshaping and the Push Toward $70K

Key Takeaways:

As of this week, the global macro environment is in a sensitive validation phase shaped by “inflation repricing” and “central bank policy divergence.” After the previous deep deleveraging, the crypto market has staged a strong bottoming rebound. BTC is now pushing aggressively toward the $70,000 mark, currently around $69,800, while ETH has also recovered to $1,980. Market liquidity is showing a clear convergence toward core assets. During a phase where one-way trends are being repeatedly confirmed, quantitative trend strategies, such as dense moving-average breakouts, have become a core weapon for capturing excess PNL. At the same time, underlying infrastructure is accelerating toward “capital-efficiency reconstruction,” with open clearing protocols such as Cycles and Pheasant Network attracting strong interest from top-tier capital.

Below is SunX Research’s in-depth reconstructed panoramic analysis of the mid-July macro and crypto markets, helping you capture trading Alpha more precisely around key price levels.

I. Macro and Traditional Finance: Global Central Bank Divergence and the Long Battle of High Rates

The core macro narrative has shifted from a single “rate-cut game” to “central bank policy-path divergence + rate-expectation volatility.”

1. The Fed’s “Data Dependence” and the Rate-Cut Puzzle: Fed officials continue to send signals that policy remains tight and data-dependent. Although earlier inflation pressure has eased somewhat, structural demand from energy prices and AI investment has kept the market extremely cautious about the rate-cut path. This week’s upcoming U.S. June CPI data will be the most important window for validating the inflation trajectory. If inflation proves sticky, the market will fully price in a “Higher for Longer” scenario, and the yield curve may flatten further.
2. The ECB and the Swing in Global Liquidity: The European Central Bank continues to balance weak growth against sticky inflation, and the market widely expects it to keep rates tight for longer to prevent geopolitical factors from pushing prices higher again. In addition, the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization is quietly changing the flow of global carry trade capital.
3. SunX Macro View: The global macro environment remains in an asset-repricing phase driven by highly volatile interest rates. Valuation expansion for risk assets is being suppressed by risk-free rates, and liquidity is unable to spill over broadly.

II. Crypto Market Microstructure: BTC Charges Toward $70K and Rotation After Deleveraging

After a month of low-volume washout, the crypto market is completing a deep handover between old and new positions.

1. Core Assets Rebound Strongly: BTC has formed a textbook “strong rebound after breakdown and washout” structure. After the earlier break below $60,000 triggered panic, the market saw powerful technical buying and spot short covering. As of today’s latest market action, BTC has broken through multiple resistance levels in one move and is approaching $69,800; ETH has also awakened from its earlier absolute weakness and returned above $1,980.
2. The futures Market Is “Traveling Light”: The earlier decline completed a deep round of deleveraging, with the notional value of BTC and ETH perpetual positions once falling by more than 25%. The current strong rebound has not been accompanied by extreme long-side crowding, and funding rates remain broadly neutral to slightly positive. This means the rebound is being driven more by genuine spot buying and macro sentiment repair than by high-leverage stacking.
3. Altcoins: “Low Liquidity + Fast Rotation”: Although the broader market has recovered, mainstream capital remains highly concentrated in BTC and ETH. The altcoin market continues to show a “BTC siphon” pattern, with only localized rebounds in AI, RWA, and selected high-quality L2 sectors. Fundamentally, before large-scale incremental off-market capital enters, altcoins still lack a sustainable main narrative.

III. Deep Infrastructure Sector Analysis: Breakthrough Players Reconstructing Capital Efficiency

Industry attention is shifting from pure asset speculation toward “financial infrastructure upgrades,” especially clearing and cross-chain networks designed to improve institutional capital efficiency.

1. Cycles: An Open Clearing Protocol Backed by Coinbase

Cycles, which recently received $6.4 million in participation from top-tier institutions including Coinbase, is attempting to reconstruct the clearing layer for crypto derivatives.

1. Core Logic: Traditional CEX and DEX clearing is often closed and fragmented, resulting in very low capital efficiency. Cycles introduces an “open clearing” paradigm, allowing derivatives trades across different platforms and chains to share a unified clearing layer and margin pool.
2. Sector Outlook: As the market evolves toward institutionalization, unified clearing protocols that can significantly reduce hedging costs for market makers and quant funds while releasing excess liquidity will become a core engine of the next DeFi Summer.

2. Pheasant Network: Cross-Chain Settlement With Extreme Capital Efficiency

With the explosion of Layer 2, liquidity fragmentation has become a major industry pain point. Pheasant Network is committed to building intent-centric, efficient cross-chain settlement infrastructure. By optimizing state synchronization and liquidity-routing mechanisms, it can complete cross-chain asset scheduling with extremely low slippage and latency, representing the leap of cross-chain infrastructure from “usable” to “extreme capital efficiency.”

IV. SunX Quant Trading Review: “Trend Alpha” in a Range-Bound Uptrend

In a market marked by structural divergence and uncertain rebound sustainability, discretionary trading can easily fall into the dilemma of selling too early or chasing too high. Quant backtests by the SunX Research team show that trend-following strategies such as “dense moving-average breakouts” are currently the optimal way to capture Alpha.

1. Core Strategy Logic: When multiple short- and medium-term moving averages, such as SMA and EMA, gradually converge, it indicates that the market is in a compressed state before choosing a direction. When price breaks above the upper edge of the moving-average band with rising volume, it signals that bulls have regained control. The strategy then immediately goes long with the trend and pairs the entry with dynamic take-profit logic: “moving-average width at entry × take-profit multiple.”
2. Classic Live Case (AAVE/USDT): In the recent monthly backtest, AAVE/USDT showed an excellent PNL ratio. After filtering out invalid wide-range chop, the strategy accurately captured the trending move. Strategy net PNL reached 60.2%, compared with only 3.76% for buy-and-hold over the same period, while maximum drawdown was strictly controlled at -12.9%.
3. Portfolio Optimization: In July live application, users are advised to use this as an “enhancement module” within their portfolios. The core allocation can remain in low-turnover BTC spot or stablecoin Earn, while the trend-enhancement module activates only when signals are triggered. At the same time, “Fill volume confirmation” should be added to reduce the risk of false counter-trend breakouts.

V. July Market Outlook and Trading Strategy Guide

Looking ahead to the coming week, the absolute core market focus will be the release of U.S. June CPI data. This will directly determine whether BTC can firmly stand above $70,000 and start a new major uptrend.

For SunX high-net-worth users, this week’s core strategy recommendations are as follows:

1. Follow the Trend Based on Support: BTC has built a solid dense Fill zone around $67,500–$68,000. Before this support breaks, users should avoid blindly trying to short the top. SunX futures products can be used to look for right-side long opportunities when price pulls back to support.
2. Strictly Control Altcoin Exposure: Under the broader market’s siphon effect, avoid heavily adding against the trend in illiquid altcoins.
3. Allocate to Earn to Lock In Win Rate: In the face of sudden macro-data shocks, moving part of realized profits into a SunX Earn account allows users to earn steady passive yield in a zero-volatility safe harbor. This is the ultimate fallback for navigating uncertainty.

Follow SunX Research to cut through the macro fog, rely on quantitative data, and become a friend of time and trend.

Disclaimer: The macroeconomic and on-chain data cited in this article is for academic discussion and market trend analysis only. It does not constitute any financial, legal, or investment advice. Digital asset investing involves extremely high volatility. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk-control strategies.