[SunX Research Weekly Report] The Eve of the PCE Showdown and the 63,000 Bottom Line: A Reshuffling of Chips and a Breakthrough Amidst the Shadow of High Interest Rates

Key Takeaways:

As of June 28, 2026, macro capital remains highly restrained ahead of key inflation data, while the crypto market continues to form a low-volume bottoming structure. BTC’s latest price is struggling around $63,240, and ETH is consolidating weakly near $1,675. Under the dual pressure of a high-rate macro environment and continued net outflows from spot ETF funds, the market is now in the “eve before dawn,” with liquidity at its most depleted point. During this vacuum in spot buying, the optimal way to get through this liquidity winter is to rely on SunX’s exceptional depth for futures hedging and move idle funds into Earn for steady yield generation.

Below is the latest panoramic macro and crypto market analysis from SunX Research:

I. Macro and Traditional Finance: The PCE Test Approaches and Half-Year-End “Portfolio Rebalancing”

In the global capital chessboard, traditional “rate-cut expectations” have been completely shattered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish guidance. The market is now driven entirely by hard data.

1. Focus on PCE Confirmation: A High-Rate Environment Becomes the Long-Term Baseline

After the intense tug-of-war created by both nonfarm payrolls and CPI exceeding expectations, global capital is holding its breath for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due at month-end. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, if PCE further confirms stubborn inflation, the “Higher for Longer” macro-tightening script will be fully locked in. Elevated risk-free rates, such as a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, mean that valuation expansion for high-beta risk assets will face a long-term ceiling.

2. Quarter-End and Half-Year-End Institutional Rebalancing

At the end of June 2026, major Wall Street institutions and mutual funds are entering a critical semiannual portfolio rebalancing window. Against a backdrop where AI technology stocks, including giants that previously completed super IPOs, have attracted a large amount of profitable positioning, capital tends to sell underperforming crypto assets to improve financial statements. This regular liquidity drain from traditional finance has directly intensified recent downside pressure in the crypto market.

II. Crypto Market Micro View: BTC’s $63K Life-or-Death Line and a Liquidity Freeze

1. Latest Market Action: BTC Retreats to $63,240 as the Long Structure Fully Resets

Under the combined impact of macro liquidity withdrawal and internal risk-off sentiment, the crypto market has endured an extremely painful slow sell-off. As of today, June 28, BTC has broken below multiple support levels and is now painfully searching for a bottom around $63,240; ETH is also under pressure, falling sharply to around $1,675.

After more than $1.8 billion in large-scale liquidations in the previous phase, the micro long structure in the derivatives market has been thoroughly destroyed. Open interest (OI) in the futures market has dropped significantly, while funding rates remain extremely low or even negative. This means market leverage has largely been cleared, forcing the broader market to search for a new spot buying-and-selling equilibrium amid desperate low volatility.

2. Institutional Fund Flows: ETFs Keep Bleeding as Buying Power Falls Into a Vacuum

The breakdown in spot-side funding is the core factor weighing on the market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued their net outflow trend, while traditional “old money” has chosen to remain conservative and wait on the sidelines amid macro uncertainty. At the same time, previous major one-way buyers, such as some listed technology companies, have shifted their strategic focus toward debt management and preferred-share dividends, pausing their high-frequency Bitcoin purchases. When absolute buying power disappears, the market can only keep probing lower to test bottom support.

III. Structural Sector Divergence: AI Agents and Compliant RWA Break Out Against the Trend

As asset speculation cools across the board, capital is accelerating its rotation into “financial infrastructure” with real business barriers and underlying logic.

1. AI Agent Collaboration Networks: ARC’s Modular Ambition

In the AI sector, capital has shifted from pure “compute stacking” toward real application deployment. ARC, backed by top-tier capital and with cumulative financing of more than $222 million, is becoming a key focus.

1. Core Logic: ARC is positioned as modular intelligent-agent infrastructure for AI Agent collaboration and on-chain autonomous ecosystems. It not only provides computing capabilities, but also aims to build an AI Agent-native economic collaboration and value network, enabling machine-to-machine (M2M) automated payments and complex task execution. In a volatile market, infrastructure projects with genuine Web3 paradigm-shifting potential like this are absorbing long-term institutional allocation capital.

2. Sovereign-Level RWA Infrastructure: AWARP’s Regional Breakthrough

Compliant RWA, or real-world assets, is one of the very few sectors currently showing countercyclical vitality.

1. Core Logic: Targeting Southeast Asia, AWARP uses USDA, a compliant stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, to deeply integrate with large-scale mobile payment scenarios in regions such as Laos. Part of the cash flow generated by real offline mobile payments, together with commodity-based RWA yield, is continuously injected into the Treasury to provide real yield for staking users. This dimensional strike model, which brings real Web2 cash flow into Web3, has built a highly resilient regional moat.

IV. SunX Trading Strategy Guide: Build Defensive Positions and Lock In Deterministic Alpha

With liquidity extremely scarce and the broader market repeatedly testing the $63,000 bottom line, blindly buying the dip can easily lead to a liquidity trap. For SunX professional traders and high-net-worth users, this week’s core strategy recommendations are as follows:

1. Avoid Liquidity Traps and Leverage CEX Depth for futures HedgingRecent extreme market conditions have sharply exposed the liquidity-depletion crisis faced by DEXs, or decentralized exchanges, during washout markets, including death wicks of more than 30%. As a leading centralized exchange, SunX has unmatched order book depth. When key support levels are under pressure, users are advised to use SunX to establish short futures hedging positions. The platform’s industry-leading high-speed matching engine can ensure high-precision Fill during panic selling, effectively shielding users from malicious wicks and slippage while providing the strongest safety cushion for high-leverage positions.
2. Reduce Risk Exposure and Move Idle Capital Into Earn for Steady YieldBefore the macro shoe drops with the PCE data release, the probability of winning directional trades is extremely low. The smartest strategy is to convert temporarily idle risk assets into compliant stablecoins and transfer them to a SunX Earn account with one click. While fully isolating capital from the sharp rises and falls of the secondary market, users can safely earn passive annualized yield far above traditional finance. Holding interest-generating cash flow during a washout cycle is what allows traders to calmly welcome the next major uptrend.

[SunX Closing Remarks]

Leverage has been exhausted, and the next cycle is approaching. In the most desperate bottoming zone, the contest is no longer about offensive sharpness, but defensive resilience. Follow SunX Research for weekly insights that cut through the macro fog and get straight to the essence of trading.