At a time when global liquidity expectations are being aggressively repriced, the correlation between the crypto market and traditional finance is reaching historic highs. This week, as geopolitical tensions temporarily eased, global risk assets finally got a brief window to breathe. Yet beneath the surface rebound, the Federal Reserve’s growing hawkish divergence, the structural stickiness of inflation, and Wall Street’s accelerating land grab across the crypto ETF sector are quietly reshaping the valuation framework of the entire Crypto market.
In this issue, SUNX Research Institute analyzes the market from three dimensions — macroeconomic variables, on-chain microstructure, and ETF institutional fund flows — to break down the core forces currently driving the market and provide strategic guidance for navigating a volatile environment.
I. Macro and Traditional Finance: Recovery Under Geopolitical Easing, but Inflation Risks Remain
1. Risk appetite rebounds as U.S. equities and the AI supply chain stage an oversold bounce
Recently, the Middle East conflict has shown meaningful signs of easing, with differences at the negotiating table coming in well below the market’s earlier worst-case expectations. The rapid decline in geopolitical risk premium has directly stabilized commodity markets, particularly crude oil, and opened room for a valuation recovery across global risk assets.
Against this backdrop, along with support-stability expectations in a U.S. election year and hopes for easing macro trade tensions, U.S. equities have posted a strong oversold rebound. Capital remains highly concentrated in the upstream AI supply chain and major tech names such as Oracle.
SUNX view: In the short term, upside repair in macro capital flows still faces relatively limited resistance. However, tail risks in geopolitics have not been fully cleared, and in a wide trading range, traders’ margin for error remains extremely low.
2. Policy divergence is widening: the FOMC’s hawkish undertone
The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed a warning signal: policy divergence within the Federal Reserve is widening further. In the “last mile” of fighting inflation, the option of a rate hike has now explicitly entered internal discussions, signaling a more clearly hawkish turn in tone.
That said, in terms of actual policy implementation, most Fed officials are still prioritizing the fragile balance of a cooling labor market. The market generally continues to price a low probability of an actual hike this year.
3. Inflation’s “gray rhino”: March CPI and supercore transmission
March headline CPI showed a clear upward slope, driven primarily by rising energy prices. Although core CPI came in slightly below expectations, suggesting that energy inflation has not yet fully passed through into core goods and services, the real risk lies in the longer-term price floor for crude oil.
If international oil prices remain firmly above $80, then over the next 3 to 6 months, higher energy costs are likely to feed into the more persistent category of supercore inflation. This could create serious upside risk for inflation data in the months ahead and force the Fed to remain more cautious on rate cuts. In addition, due to base effects from the same period last year, housing rent data next month may also show an abnormal jump.
II. Crypto Market Microstructure: BTC Holds Above $75,000 and Bullish Resonance Builds in Derivatives
1. BTC stabilizes above $75,000 while altcoins face liquidity drain
In the recent rebound cycle, BTC has shown remarkable leadership strength. According to the latest market data, Bitcoin has climbed strongly and stabilized around $75,700. Market disagreement over whether a bottom had formed is fading quickly, and $75,000 has now shifted from prior resistance into a strong short-term support zone. Because this level was broken rapidly through large-scale short liquidations, turnover there has been substantial, giving it strong reference value.
By contrast, the broader altcoin market still lacks solid fundamental support. Price action in many names remains heavily dominated by concentrated positioning, with major players extracting PNL mainly through Futures liquidations and funding rate arbitrage, leaving retail traders at a structural disadvantage.
2. Derivatives data: Smart Money is entering while short positioning becomes crowded
- Spot active buying is returning: although aggregate spot trading volume across the market has not yet exploded, CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), which reflects aggressive buying intent, remains elevated. This clearly suggests that part of the Smart Money cohort is actively accumulating and absorbing earlier sell pressure.
- Futures and options are diverging: driven by external catalysts such as geopolitics, Futures trading activity has risen significantly, yet overall funding rates remain negative. This crowded structure — spot buying combined with Futures shorting — creates ideal conditions for a sharp technical short squeeze if spot prices continue to break higher.
- Options market sentiment remains strongly bullish: notional trading volume in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF options has exceeded $1.15 billion, with a call-to-put ratio of 2.27. Total notional open interest has reached $22.63 billion, with an open-interest call-to-put ratio of 1.52. The elevated ratios, combined with 44.74% implied volatility, show very strong bullish positioning for the market outlook.
III. ETF Momentum and Wall Street Positioning: More Than $1 Billion Returns as the Track Widens
Capital inflows from traditional financial institutions through ETFs are the core liquidity supporting BTC’s ability to remain above $75,000. This week, the spot crypto ETF market delivered a particularly striking set of numbers.
1. Net inflow data: BlackRock leads while Ethereum regains attention
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs: this week recorded a stunning $816 million in net inflows, with total net assets approaching $94.92 billion. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT remained the clear capital magnet, pulling in $612 million.
- U.S. Ethereum ETFs: recovered from prior weakness and recorded $187 million in net inflows, mainly driven by BlackRock’s ETHA, which contributed $168 million.
2. “Old money” is entering as major institutions expand the ecosystem
- Boomers are waking up: according to Bloomberg analysts, U.S. Baby Boomer investors quietly allocated around $500 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs while the macro backdrop remained under pressure. This kind of counter-trend allocation reflects deepening recognition by traditional capital of BTC’s long-term strategic value.
- Morgan Stanley enters and “night session” ETFs emerge: Morgan Stanley’s newly launched Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, delivered the strongest first-day trading performance among all of the bank’s ETF products. At the same time, the launch of the Bitcoin Night Strategy ETF (NGHT) further expands the institutional trading toolkit.
3. Horizontal expansion across the ETF track: altcoin ETF applications intensify
Wall Street’s ambitions are no longer limited to BTC and ETH:
- Bitwise updates Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP): Bitwise has once again updated its Hyperliquid ETF filing. The fund will trade under the ticker BHYP with a management fee of 0.67% (67 bps). Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that such moves often indicate a product launch may be approaching.
- Canary Capital tests a PEPE ETF: asset manager Canary Capital has formally submitted an S-1 registration statement to the U.S. SEC for a Canary PEPE ETF. This shows that Wall Street is now testing whether meme coins can also enter mainstream institutional investment channels.
IV. SUNX Trading Strategy Guide
Overall, macro resilience and accelerating ETF capital inflows are building a stronger bottom for the Crypto market. With BTC now holding near $75,700, the short-term downside space appears to be significantly compressed.
For SUNX’s high-net-worth users and Futures traders, this week’s core strategy should remain centered on defensive stability and core-asset concentration:
1. Focus your exposure on core assets
Given the liquidity exhaustion and violent volatility across the altcoin market, it is advisable to concentrate core positions in BTC and ETH, rather than becoming a victim of funding-rate arbitrage and concentrated positioning in thin-liquidity names.
2. Accumulate on the left, follow momentum on the right
With spot CVD remaining elevated and funding rates still negative, the market may be setting up for another technical short squeeze at any time. Consider using SUNX’s deep-liquidity spot grid tools to scale in near the $75,000 support zone, while also closely monitoring momentum-following opportunities if price breaks above prior all-time-high resistance.
By relying on SUNX’s industry-leading matching engine for low-slippage Fill execution, and by setting strict stop-loss levels, traders can better guard against geopolitical black swan disruptions.
3. Embrace passive returns
In a volatile market, users unwilling to take on high directional risk may move idle USDT and similar assets into a SUNX Earn account to generate more stable passive PNL and navigate the cycle with greater resilience.
The essence of surviving bull and bear markets lies in staying committed to quality assets over the long term. As a centralized platform with 100% Reserve Proof (PoR) and 24/7 fast-response customer support, SUNX is committed to delivering a safer and more institutional-grade trading experience.
Follow SUNX’s official channels each week for the latest institutional-level research insights.
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