Standing at the macro crossroads of April 13, 2026, global capital markets are undergoing a deep reset in pricing logic. From the geopolitical shadow hanging over the Strait of Hormuz to the Federal Reserve’s renewed focus on inflation data, on-chain indicators alone can no longer fully explain the current direction of the crypto market. In this edition, SUNX Research Institute combines the latest macroeconomic data with on-chain capital flows to break down the pricing logic of crypto assets under global macro pressure, while outlining a more resilient path for asset growth in a volatile market.
I. Macro Markets: A Shift in Core Pricing Logic and the Return of Inflation Pressure
Over the next 1–3 months, the key anchor for global financial markets is no longer the timing of Fed rate cuts, but the supply-side shock caused by geopolitical conflict.
1. Geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices: the inflation gray rhino
The continued escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions and the broader Middle East situation has directly pushed global crude oil prices higher. This oil-driven rise in real inflation is now feeding directly into corporate cost structures.
At present, the market has still not fully priced in the tail risk of an extreme escalation, such as direct ground intervention. If this situation extends into the middle or later part of Q2, inflation resilience will place significant constraints on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, sharply weakening what had previously been a relatively optimistic liquidity outlook. This has also directly increased upward pressure on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and long-term mortgage rates.
2. The “new normal” in the labor market and growing divergence
On the surface, recent non-farm payroll (NFP) data still looks strong, but that masks underlying structural weakness in the labor market. Nearly all recent job growth has come from healthcare, driven by aging demographics, and immigration-related labor supply, while employment in finance and government has actually been contracting.
Internal Fed models suggest that U.S. labor supply growth is approaching zero. This growing divergence between surface-level economic strength and actual labor demand implies that the foundation of a so-called soft landing is not as solid as it appears.
3. Global asset repricing under currency volatility
The rapid depreciation of the Japanese yen and the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields reflect a broader global reallocation toward high-yield safe assets.
Under the dual pressure of a strong U.S. dollar and rising inflation expectations, global risk aversion has intensified. This directly helps explain why both traditional risk assets and the crypto market have recently shown limited upside momentum.
II. Crypto Market Fundamentals: Recovering Market Cap vs. Extreme Fear
Against a backdrop of tighter macro liquidity, internal crypto market data is showing a highly contradictory picture — market cap is rising, capital is leaving, and sentiment is falling.
1. Diverging spot ETF flows and major market resistance
This week, total global crypto market capitalization has climbed to $2.46 trillion, while Bitcoin dominance has risen to 59.2%.
However, spot ETF flow data shows that traditional institutions remain highly divided at current price levels. On one hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs once recorded a strong single-day net inflow of $358 million, while Morgan Stanley’s newly launched spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, also attracted $30.6 million on its first day. On the other hand, profit-taking pressure from funds such as FBTC, ARKB, and GBTC also contributed to a single-day total net outflow of as much as $124.5 million.
At present, Bitcoin remains range-bound at elevated levels around $71,600–$71,800. On-chain cost-basis distribution shows that above $75,000, there is still a large concentration of profit-taking supply and trapped positions. With ETF-driven macro inflows continuing to move in and out inconsistently, it will be extremely difficult for the market to break above previous highs and hold above $80,000 based on existing capital alone.
2. On-chain liquidity is drying up while extreme fear persists
The latest Fear & Greed Index stands at 15, up slightly from 12 last week, but the market remains stuck in a rare state of Extreme Fear.
This aligns closely with safe-haven behavior driven by expectations of a breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations, which briefly pushed the broader market down toward the $71,500 range. Weakening on-chain data also confirms this cautious mood: DEX trading volumes across major public chains have generally contracted, with on-chain traders stepping back and waiting on the sidelines. The market as a whole remains in a liquidity vacuum, with defensive positioning and caution dominating capital flows.
3. Derivatives warning: beware of “fake breakouts”
Although spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has shown slight improvement, put skew in the options market remains elevated. This suggests that professional institutions are actively buying puts to hedge downside risk.
For ordinary investors, it is critical to stay alert to potential fake upside breakouts in a range-bound market — moves where major players push prices higher to trigger short liquidations, only to quickly reverse and drive the market back down.
III. Where Is Smart Money Going? Sector Rotation and VC Positioning
In this period of low-quality, range-bound market action, tracking the movement of top institutions and Smart Money is key to identifying the next wave of alpha opportunities.
1. RWA and AI infrastructure: the new safe haven for top VCs
Despite broader market fear, institutions in the primary market are still deploying large amounts of capital into sectors with real yield and structural demand.
- RWA (Real World Assets) remains hot: on-chain private credit infrastructure project Valinor has just completed a $25 million seed round, while asset tokenization platform Midas raised $50 million in Series A funding. The launch of projects such as R2 Protocol shows that the market is urgently seeking ways to bring traditional finance’s risk-free yield, such as U.S. Treasuries, on-chain to create a stable base for large pools of stablecoin capital.
- Stablecoins and payment infrastructure are also attracting attention: The Better Money Company raised $10 million, led by a16z, to build a stablecoin clearinghouse. Combined with this week’s near 3 billion USDC issuance, it is clear that compliant capital is actively stockpiling dry powder and waiting for a more attractive entry point.
2. On-chain hot sectors: prediction markets and meme launchpads monetizing attention
In the absence of a strong macro narrative, the on-chain attention economy is being pushed to the extreme.
Projects such as OmenX and CADE Market, which convert real-world events in sports and tech into tradable on-chain prediction assets, along with meme-token launchpads such as PumpCA, which emphasize instant launches and low barriers to entry, are becoming major venues for attracting speculative liquidity and generating short-term high-frequency trading activity.
That said, this is still a highly volatile speculative playground and demands very strong risk control from participants.
IV. SUNX Trading Strategy Guide in a Volatile Cycle
Repeated macro swings often cause undisciplined traders to lose principal by constantly chasing rallies and panic-selling dips. Before the broader situation becomes clearer — likely over the next 2–4 weeks, when market positioning may remain highly aggressive — the SUNX Research Institute recommends that high-net-worth users shift toward a more resilient and stability-focused Saferich path.
1. Hedge risk with derivatives and make good use of Futures
Given the fake-breakout risk signaled by the options market and the possibility of geopolitical black swan events, holding unhedged spot alone exposes investors to excessive directional risk.
More mature investors are advised to use SUNX Futures to build hedging positions. Near the strong resistance level around $75,000, using reasonable short futures positions to lock in spot profits is a professional defensive strategy in a range-bound market.
2. Spot grid trading and optimal Fill execution
In a low-liquidity environment, slippage in the order book can become magnified.
Investors should avoid blindly chasing market orders at the exact moment key data is released, such as this week’s CPI print. Instead, placing orders in advance at key support levels, such as $65,000, and relying on SUNX’s leading matching depth to achieve low-slippage Fill execution, is a more disciplined approach.
Under the current wide-range trading environment, grid trading remains one of the better tools for generating excess returns.
3. Earn stable yield and use Earn to navigate bull and bear cycles
This week’s large-scale USDC issuance suggests that large capital is choosing to sit in stablecoins and wait patiently for opportunities.
For ordinary users, this is also one of the best periods to pursue Safeway wealth growth. By moving idle USDT/USDC or temporarily inactive major assets into a SUNX Earn account, users can avoid disorderly market volatility while still generating competitive passive annualized returns.
Before the storm fully arrives, holding yield-generating cash is often the best form of optionality.
V. Policy Expectations and Official Security Warning
Next week, the crypto market may receive a short-term positive catalyst, as the U.S. Senate is expected to review legislation related to regulatory clarity under the name “Clarity.” If the process moves forward smoothly, it may temporarily break the current atmosphere of fear.
Finally, the SUNX Research Institute would like to issue a formal warning:
As crypto traffic recovers and the global brand influence of SUNX expands, the market has recently seen a growing number of copycat platforms with confusingly similar names and highly similar UI designs. These platforms lure users into transferring assets through false promises of high returns.
All users are strongly advised to remain vigilant. Do not click on unknown airdrop links shared in groups. For all trading, Earn, and futures activity, please rely only on the official SUNX App and the official SUNX domain.
Protecting your principal is the only rule for surviving long-term in a high-risk, high-reward industry.
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