【SunX Research Weekly】A Modest Rebound in US Equities Amid Jackson Hole and PCE: Bitcoin Retreats After Testing $81,000 as Consecutive Institutional Inflows Enter a Testing Phase

Key Takeaways

This week (24–29 August), global markets focused on the July PCE inflation print and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole. July headline PCE remained at 3.7% year on year and core PCE at 3.3%, with both rising 0.2% month on month, showing no further cooling. At Jackson Hole, Warsh stressed that “the work on inflation is not yet done”. Markets raised the odds of a September rate increase, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to around 4.73% on Friday. US equities posted a modest weekly gain, supported by Nvidia’s better-than-expected results: the S&P 500 rose about 0.5%, the Dow Jones about 0.5% and the Nasdaq about 0.8%, while the Russell 2000 fell about 1.3%–1.5%. Crypto markets shifted from last week’s sharp rally into high-level consolidation. Bitcoin peaked near $81,000–$81,480 before pulling back on Warsh’s hawkish tone, trading around $78,000–$78,200 into the weekend. Ethereum oscillated between about $2,420 and $2,550, finishing near $2,440–$2,460. Spot ETFs have recorded several consecutive days of net inflows since 17 August, with cumulative inflows exceeding $3 billion, but this week’s price gains narrowed markedly. The market has entered a reorganisation phase driven by policy repricing and profit-taking.

I. Macroeconomy and Traditional Finance: Sticky PCE and a Hawkish Jackson Hole; US Equities Hold a Rebound on Technology Earnings

This week’s TradFi pricing shifted from expectations of improving liquidity to a reassessment of sticky inflation and the policy path.

1. July PCE shows inflation remains sticky, while consumption momentum slows
   The 26 August personal income and outlays report showed the PCE price index up 0.2% month on month and still 3.7% year on year; core PCE also rose 0.2% month on month and remained 3.3% year on year. Personal income rose 0.4% month on month, while personal consumption expenditure rose only 0.2%, leaving real spending essentially flat. Inflation has not continued to ease, and consumption has cooled from its earlier impulse, making the Federal Reserve’s balance between restraining inflation and protecting growth more difficult.
2. Jackson Hole becomes the anchor for rate expectations; long-end yields rise on Friday
   At Jackson Hole, Warsh emphasised the commitment to delivering price stability and noted that, although summer inflation readings were better than some expected, they did not mean underlying trends had improved in a meaningful way. Markets accordingly raised the near-term probability of a rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield eased mid-week to about 4.64%–4.67% before rising to around 4.73% on Friday after the speech. Long-end rates have once again become a core constraint on valuations.
3. Weekly equity performance: a modest advance in large caps, a technology rebound, and lagging small caps
   For the week ended 28 August:
   the S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, up about 0.5%;
   the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,559.99, up about 0.5%;
   the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,402.42, up about 0.8%;
   the Russell 2000 fell about 1.3%–1.5%.

On Thursday, Nvidia’s results and outlook beat expectations, lifting technology and the artificial-intelligence complex, with the Nasdaq up about 1.6% on the day. Friday saw a modest giveback after Warsh’s remarks. Overall, US equities partially repaired last week’s decline, but market breadth was only average, with capital preferring large-cap technology over rate-sensitive small caps.

II. Crypto Market Microstructure: High-Level Consolidation After Breaking $80,000, With Volatility Rising Sharply

This week, crypto markets shifted from a one-way advance to a tug of war at elevated levels.

1. Latest market action: Bitcoin pulls back after testing $81,000; Ethereum consolidates at a high level
   Bitcoin traded roughly between $77,000 and $81,500. On 27–28 August it briefly reached about $81,000–$81,480, a three-month high, before retreating after the Jackson Hole speech and trading around $78,100–$78,200 into the weekend. Relative to last week’s rally of about 22%, prices were broadly flat to slightly higher. Structurally, the market has moved from trend acceleration to digestion at higher levels.

Ethereum fluctuated between about $2,420 and $2,550, finishing near $2,440–$2,460. Gains were far weaker than last week’s 25%–30% impulse, suggesting capital has shifted from chasing the breakout to waiting for confirmation.

2. Market structure: spot support remains, leverage-driven buying fades, and altcoins diverge
   A notable feature of this rally is that leverage did not run out of control in parallel. During the advance, Bitcoin futures open interest declined and funding rates did not reach extreme crowding. This implies the move was driven more by spot and ETF demand than by a continuation of short covering alone. At the same time, altcoin divergence widened. Some names followed the rally and then quickly gave back gains, with capital reconcentrating in Bitcoin, Ethereum and assets linked to persistent ETF inflows.

III. In-Depth Industry Analysis: ETF Inflows and Regulatory Expectations Remain, but a Hawkish Macro Backdrop Becomes the Near-Term Ceiling

The core tension this week was the offset between unfinished institutional allocation and a renewed tightening in rate expectations.

1. Spot ETF inflows shift from a surge to a continuation
   After combined inflows of about $2.6 billion into US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the week of 17–21 August, net inflows continued this week. By around 28 August, cumulative inflows since 17 August had exceeded $3 billion, with about eight to nine consecutive sessions of net buying. Daily inflow momentum slowed clearly from the peak of more than $600 million on 20 August, but had not yet turned to outflows. This suggests institutions have not exited in one move at higher prices, but have shifted from concentrated accumulation to buying into strength while digesting gains.
2. Regulatory and macro signals operate at the same time
   The Clarity Act still points towards a Senate procedural window around 15 September, and last week’s supportive signal from the White House continues to underpin the medium-term narrative. What actually moved prices this week, however, was Warsh’s hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. For crypto, greater regulatory clarity is a medium-term positive, but near-term pricing still depends heavily on real rates, the dollar and risk appetite. Once rate-hike expectations rise, the valuation elasticity of high-beta assets falls immediately.

SunX Research comment: This week, crypto markets completed a shift from a liquidity-driven trend acceleration to macro-priced consolidation at higher levels. Consecutive ETF inflows show that the institutional allocation thesis has not broken. But the swift rejection near $81,000 also shows that short liquidations and sentiment diffusion alone are no longer enough to support the next one-way move. The next stage will turn less on whether a new high is printed, and more on whether the area around $78,000 can be reconfirmed by spot capital.

IV. SunX Trading Strategy Guide: Shift from Chasing Strength to a Defensive Counter-Attack

With Bitcoin holding above $78,000, US equities only modestly higher, and Warsh’s remarks lifting rate-hike odds, a large one-way bet higher or lower is not the optimal choice. For SunX high-net-worth clients and professional traders, this week’s core recommendation is to protect profits, control drawdowns and wait for a second confirmation.

1. Use the depth of a centralised exchange and manage elevated volatility with futures
   Bitcoin has left last week’s lower range, but selling pressure above $81,000 is clear. Investors holding spot may use SunX futures to build a partial hedge in the $78,000–$80,000 zone, smoothing two-way volatility after Jackson Hole. If price revisits key support and ETF inflows remain intact, hedges can be reduced gradually and trend-following restored. SunX’s high-speed matching engine helps reduce slippage and improve hedge precision in periods of extreme volatility.
2. Reduce chase-the-rally exposure and park part of the gains in yield-bearing assets
   It is advisable to cut back on chasing high-volatility altcoins that lack fundamental support, convert part of realised profits into compliant stablecoins, and lock in relatively stable passive yield through SunX Earn. Core holdings should still favour Bitcoin and Ethereum while awaiting clearer direction from next week’s labour-market data, September FOMC expectations and the Clarity Act timetable. Holding cash-flow assets helps preserve dry powder during high-level consolidation, rather than allowing a short-term pullback to interrupt positioning.

Watch Treasury yields closely, together with any shift in spot ETF flows from consecutive inflows to outflows, and the September regulatory and rate calendar. SunX Research will continue to filter market noise, cut through the fog of capital flows, and serve as a professional guardian of the steady compounding of your digital assets.

(Disclaimer: The macroeconomic data, US equity indicators and crypto-market developments cited in this article are for academic discussion and trend analysis only and do not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Digital-asset investment is highly volatile. Please assess your own risk tolerance carefully and apply strict risk-control measures.)